A long delayed Government report now confirms what scientists – and many of us – have warned for years: nature’s collapse threatens national safety.

In January, the UK Government quietly released a synopsis of a longawaited national security assessment that should have dominated headlines. Instead, its arrival was muted – delayed since October and reportedly subject to unease within Number 10. 

Yet its message could not be more urgent. “Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security”. This is not the warning of a lone environmentalist or academic. It is the judgement of the British state.

The assessment paints a stark picture: crop failures, intensifying natural disasters, infectious disease outbreaks and escalating geopolitical instability. It concludes that “every critical ecosystem on Earth is on a pathway to collapse”, and that countries most at most risk are those, like the UK, that rely heavily on imports for both food and fertiliser.

When I wrote Sixty Harvests Left several years ago, I warned that the decline of nature – driven by factory farming – was no abstract ecological concern but a direct risk to civilisation itself. 

Back then, I argued that political leaders, shaped by decades of humancentric thinking, had come to prioritise economics and technology over the stewardship of our life-support systems. It was not that they were indifferent; rather, they were not equipped to recognise the slowmotion collapse unfolding beneath their feet.

A Crisis Governments Can No Longer Ignore

Now, in 2026, the Government’s security assessment effectively confirms that fear. It warns that ecosystem degradation is already creating the conditions for conflict, forced migration, and competition for increasingly scarce resources. Crucially, it highlights that the world’s breadbasket regions – the agricultural heartlands we depend upon for food – are at risk. Collapse in two or more of these regions would “almost certainly” drive up food prices, restricting diets and threatening household food security.

To put it plainly: if these systems falter, countries like Britain will struggle.

They do not produce enough food to feed themselves. Depending on imports for a significant share of our diet, and on global supply chains for fertiliser. In a world of mounting ecological shocks and geopolitical tension, that reliance becomes a strategic vulnerability.

Strategic Vulnerability

This is why the Government assessment states that “it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security” without dramatically increasing the resilience of its food systems. That means diversifying supply chains, reducing reliance on fragile international inputs, and – most critically – investing in nature’s recovery. Nations that protect and restore ecosystems, it states, will be best placed to weather what is coming.

For years, scientists have warned of pollinator declines driven by chemical pesticides; of soils degrading so rapidly that staple foods may one day fail; of antibiotic overuse in industrial farming breeding superbugs that threaten human medicine; of forests being cleared at a rate that undermines climate stability. These are not separate issues – they are symptoms of a system out of balance.

We Saw This Coming

In Sixty Harvests Left, I wrote that the planet had gone from a Garden of Eden to a world in decline within a single lifetime. That industrialised meat production, reliant on vast quantities of feed crops and fertiliser, was accelerating climate change and ecological loss. That our life-support systems – soil, water, biodiversity – were fraying. And that without decisive action, the world could face storms, droughts, harvest failures and mass displacement on a scale that would test even the strongest nations.

The Government’s new assessment echoes those warnings almost line for line. It describes a world in which food production systems may fail simultaneously across multiple regions; where geopolitical tensions flare over water and fertile land; where millions may be forced to move as their environments collapse; where nations face competition not just for energy or technology, but for the very building blocks of civilisation: food, soil, clean water, stable climate.

So, what must we do?

First, we must confront the truth that food security is national security. This means shifting away from high-impact systems that degrade soils, pollute waterways and rely heavily on imported fertilisers. It means supporting farmers to transition to nature-friendly practices – organic, regenerative, agroecological – that rebuild the very ecosystems our survival depends on. And it means diversifying our diets, reducing dependence on resource-intensive animal farming and investing in local, resilient supply chains.

Second, we must treat ecosystem restoration with the same seriousness as defence spending. Protecting peatlands, rewilding degraded landscapes, restoring rivers and seas. These are not “nice to haves”; they are strategic investments in national resilience. Nature is our first line of defence against climate breakdown, floods, droughts and crop failure.

Only Leadership Will Decide Our Fate

Third, we must recognise that leadership matters. I’ve previously written that we stand on a precipice. That what we do now is of the utmost importance. That is truer today than ever. This is not a moment for timidity or denial. It is a moment for clarity and courage.

Ultimately, the UK Government’s report is not just a warning. It is a call to action. It tells us that continuing with business as usual is no longer an option – not for the environment, not for the economy, not for our national security.

We have a narrow window to change course. To rebuild the living systems that sustain us. To act with the foresight our ancestors lacked when they began the long journey from hunter-gatherers to agriculturalists.

The choice before us is simple: invest in nature now or face the consequences of its collapse later. History will judge us on whether we stepped back from the precipice – or kept walking.

Note: This is a version of an article that was first published in The Scotsman on Friday 20^th February, 2026.